Labor 2010

There are 32 days until the November 2 elections. Early voting is now taking place in Georgia, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Vermont, and Wyoming.

In the last few days, polls in several states have shown some movement toward the Democrats.  In places like California, Illinois, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania prospects for Democratic governor candidates are improving.  In other places Democrats are moving up to make some races tighter.  We don’t want to sugar coat the situation. The Democrats are in a precarious position created (in my opinion) by the inability and/or unwillingness of the Senate “Democrats” to get anything done.  Democrats will most certainly lose seats in the House and Senate and lose several governor’s seats.  They may even lose control of the House. (It’s a shame that Speaker Pelosi and the House Democrats are taking the blame for the Senate “Democrats”)  But right now, momentum is starting to turn in their direction.  The Republicans are still in a good position, but they’re beginning to wish the election was last week.

There are lots of reasons that the polls are changing. In some cases, it might be an issue in a campaign or a problem for a candidate (like Meg Whitman’s undocumented housekeeper in California.)  Republican voters remain very enthusiastic about the election.  Democrats are less interested but are finally beginning to pay more attention.   But I believe a major reason for the movement in the polls is the impact of the Labor  2010 member-to-member political program.  Union members are starting to hear from their union about the election. And once they hear the choice ahead of them, they are moving to the Democratic candidate. 

Two things about this. 

One, it underscores the importance of our member to member communications and how vitally important it is for us to push hard for the remaining 33 days. Members who hear from their union are more likely to vote, and more likely to vote for the endorsed candidate.  But they need to hear from their union more than 5 times to have the maximum impact.  That means phone calls, letters, neighborhood walks and jobsite visits are all important.  We can’t rely on one phone call or a single mailing to convince members to vote.

Two, we need to tell everyone we talk to about politics that the reason these polls are starting to move is because of union members.  The candidates need to hear it.  The Democratic Party needs to hear it.  And our members need to hear it.  When members understand that their political action really moves the polls, they will be more likely to be active and more likely to get other people active.  Democratic candidates, campaign staff, consultants and political operatives all around the country don’t have any idea how important the Labor political program is. We need to stress to Democrats over and over that the most effective thing we can do for them is to mobilize union voters.  And we can point to the movement in the polls from Labor’s political program as proof.  (Ironically, the Republicans understand this all too well and they want to kill it anyway they can.) 

The Labor 2010 Political Program may not be the only reason polls are beginning to move.  But if we claim that movement, and we repeat it over and over to everyone we talk to, we can make the impact of the Labor program part of the story.

Frustration

Watching the Democrats in Congress (and the Obama Administration) is a frustrating experience for many of us.  We had such high hopes for what they could do once in power.  The Democrats set a high bar for us.  Before they could actually help working families, we were told we would first have to win back the House, then win back the Senate, then get a 60 member filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, then win the White House.  If only we could win all that, then they would help us.

Well, we did it.  We gave them everything they asked for, and more.  But somehow, the Republicans are still calling the shots in Congress.  Democrats seem afraid to take bold action or to stand on principle or even to stand up for what they campaigned on.  It’s enough to make you wonder what they will fight for. 

Republicans understand power better than Democrats.  Out of frustration, a colleague told me yesterday that he was so fed up with the Democrats that he thought he might as well become a Republican.  At least they deliver on their promises.

 I told him that happened to a friend of mine once. He worked night and day to elect Democrats and then was frustrated with them once they took office.  He wanted them to be like the Republicans, to exercise raw power without flinching, boldly rewarding his friends and mercilessly crushing his enemies. But the Democrats wouldn't do it. So he changed parties and learned the secret to being a good Republican. 

The first thing they did was remove his heart.   

Election Results

Voter turnout yesterday was typical of an off-year election.  Turnout is always lower while the voters who do show up for these elections are older and less diverse than voters in a presidential year.  Campaigns, that were built (such as Deeds) on a plan to turn out thousands of young and minority Obama voters, were doomed from the start.

Governors
It’s easy to over-generalize from the governors’ elections.  But they really are not very strong predictors in what voters will do in federal races.  Ticket splitting is much more common in governors’ races than in federal elections.  Many states have a tendency to rotate Democrats and Republicans in the governor’s office after a term or two.  I think that was a significant factor in Virginia.  In Jersey, Corzine was the victim of anti-incumbent anger.  And that is more likely to affect incumbents of either party going into next year.

In New Jersey, obviously with the amount of money, time and effort Labor pumped into the race, we will be in Christie’s crosshairs.  The NJ Governor is one of the most powerful in the country so the next four years will be very difficult.  The Legislature remains in Democratic hands.

In Virginia, Deeds never had a message, never established his own identity as a candidate and never had much of a strategy.  His loss was only slightly worse than expected.  The Democrats lost 5 seats in the House but maintain a 1 vote majority in the State Senate as a possible stop gap against McDonnell’s right wing agenda.

NY 23 Special
The NY 23 race should not necessarily be seen as a rejection of right-wing Republican candidates.  Both McDonnell in Virginia and Christie in NJ are right-wingers (I’d even say both of them are wingnuts.)  But McDonnell ran as a moderate on the surface and took advantage of a weak Democratic candidate.  And Christie was clearly very conservative.  He just wasn’t the incumbent.  Both of them won the independent vote.  That could be trouble next year.

Owens won the House seat because the Republicans were split.  In both NJ and VA, the Republicans were united behind a right wing candidate.  I suspect that if the NY 23 Republican Party leaders had chosen someone the right was happy with, they would have won the seat easily.

Republican Primaries
There will be primaries against a number of moderate Republicans.  Some of those races, like Charlie Crist and Mark Rubio in Florida, will be high profile battles between the right wing and more moderate voices.  That could increase the negative public perception of the Republican Party and give Democrats a chance. But to take advantage of their in-fighting, Democrats will have to have good candidates running good campaigns.  If they are incumbents, they may have to run flawless campaigns.

So I think the early lessons are, this cycle the independents will vote for a right wing conservative Republican against a weak (Deeds) or damaged (Corzine) Democrat.  Second, moderate Republican voters don’t seem to have any problem voting for a right winger either (Christie, McDonnell) when there is no primary fight.  And third, the primary fights will only help Democrats when they have a good candidate (Owens) who runs a very good campaign.

Other Races
In other races, California Lt Governor John Garamendi easily won the special election to replace U.S. Rep Ellen Taushcer in CA 10.  The District has an 18 point Democratic advantage and was never at risk.  Mayor Bloomberg, however, after spending $90 million of his own money and outspending his opponent 14-1, barely won re-election with 51%.  Voters think he is doing a good job as mayor but were upset that he pushed through a change in the law to allow himself to run for a third term.  Turn out in NYC was lower than at any time in decades.

Bottom line is that core Democratic voters need a reason (and a candidate) to turn out for or else they simply won't vote.